COP31 and Türkiye's Climate Diplomacy: Zero Waste, Hosting Role and What to Expect

Why It Matters

COP31 is the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and it is scheduled for November 2026 in Antalya, Türkiye. Under a compromise reached at COP30 in Belém in November 2025, Türkiye hosts the conference and holds the COP presidency, Australia holds a distinct role leading the negotiations, and a pre-COP is planned in the Pacific. For Ankara it is the largest multilateral climate stage it has hosted; for the wider world it is a test of whether a country that sits between developed and developing categories can broker consensus on finance and ambition.

Background

Türkiye's climate story is shaped by an unusual legal status. When the UNFCCC was adopted in 1992, Türkiye was listed in Annex I (industrialised countries and economies in transition) but not Annex II (the group with finance obligations). The 2001 Marrakech Accords (decision 26/CP.7) later recognised Türkiye's 'special circumstances', which differ from those of other Annex I parties. This is the root of Ankara's long-standing argument about how it should be classified.

Timeline

Date	Event
1992	UNFCCC adopted; 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities' (CBDR-RC) enshrined in Article 3
2001	Marrakech Accords recognise Türkiye's special circumstances
2015	Paris Agreement adopted; Article 2.2 applies CBDR-RC 'in the light of different national circumstances'
2016	Türkiye signs the Paris Agreement in New York
2017	Zero Waste initiative launched under the patronage of Emine Erdoğan
2019	UN Secretary-General establishes a High-Level Advisory Board on Zero Waste
October 2021	TBMM (the Grand National Assembly) approves Paris ratification; net-zero 2053 target announced by the Presidency
2022	UN General Assembly proclaims 30 March the International Day of Zero Waste (resolution of 14 December)
2023	Türkiye submits an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
2025	Türkiye adopts a national Climate Law, including a framework for an emissions trading system; COP30 in Belém settles the COP31 arrangement
November 2026	COP31 scheduled in Antalya

How the COP31 arrangement came about

UN climate conferences rotate among regional groups. For 2026 the turn belonged to the Western European and Others Group (WEOG), to which Türkiye belongs for UN electoral purposes. Both Türkiye and Australia (backed by Pacific states) sought to host. Because COP decisions require consensus, the two sides reached a split arrangement: Antalya hosts and Türkiye presides, while Australia takes a negotiating-leadership role and the Pacific hosts a pre-COP. Exact procedural details are set by UNFCCC documents, so readers should check the UNFCCC secretariat for the latest version.

The Paris ratification and 2053 target

Türkiye was the last G20 member to ratify the Paris Agreement. The Presidency announced in 2021 that parliament would ratify and that Türkiye would aim for net-zero emissions by 2053, the centenary year after the Republic's 2023 centenary. The Agreement entered into force for Türkiye in November 2021. The 2023 updated NDC raised the 2030 ambition compared with Türkiye's original 2015 pledge, which was framed as a reduction from a business-as-usual baseline rather than from a fixed base year. Baseline-style targets are common among developing economies but make direct comparison with EU targets harder.

Zero Waste in brief

Zero Waste is a policy framework combining waste prevention, separate collection, recycling and public awareness. It was launched domestically in 2017 and then internationalised through the UN Secretary-General's advisory board (2019) and the 2022 General Assembly resolution creating the International Day of Zero Waste, observed every 30 March and facilitated by UNEP and UN-Habitat. It is a recognised UN-level initiative, though it addresses waste and resource use rather than the energy-sector emissions at the centre of the COP agenda.

Key Players & Positions

The European Union

The EU anchors its position in the European Climate Law, which sets climate neutrality by 2050. It has set 2030 and 2040 reduction targets (a 90% net reduction by 2040 has been agreed, with certain flexibilities) and pushes for a global transition away from fossil fuels. The EU is also the largest trading partner of Türkiye and a major source of climate-related trade policy, notably the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), whose definitive phase begins on 1 January 2026.

The Global South and developing-country groupings

The G77 and China, the Africa Group and the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) emphasise CBDR-RC, historical responsibility and finance. At COP29 in Baku, parties set a New Collective Quantified Goal of at least USD 300 billion a year by 2035, led by developed countries, within a wider call to mobilise USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources. Many developing countries consider these figures insufficient and object to unilateral trade measures with climate rationales.

Pacific island states

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and Pacific governments frame climate change as an existential threat. They stress the 1.5°C limit, adaptation finance and the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage. Their role in the COP31 arrangement gives their priorities visible weight in the 2026 cycle.

Other major emitters

China, India and the United States each shape outcomes through their own positions on finance, coal and national commitments. Their stances change with domestic politics, so readers should consult current official statements rather than rely on older summaries.

Türkiye's Strategic Position

• A hosting role built on consensus. Ankara presents its COP31 presidency as a bridge-building mandate between developed and developing parties and between regions. This reflects Türkiye's wider self-image as a bridge actor, discussed in Is Türkiye a Bridge Between Blocs?. Sources: Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye and the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change statements on COP31.
• Net-zero 2053 and Paris ratification. According to the Presidency, Türkiye ratified the Paris Agreement through a TBMM decision in October 2021 and committed to net zero by 2053. The domestic Climate Law adopted in 2025 is presented as the legal backbone, including a planned emissions trading system. Sources: TBMM records; Presidency announcement; the updated NDC filed with the UNFCCC.
• Zero Waste as a Turkish contribution to global governance. Ankara points to the 2019 UN advisory board and the 2022 General Assembly resolution as evidence that a Turkish-originated concept became a UN framework. Sources: UN General Assembly records; UN Secretary-General's announcement.
• CBDR-RC and 'special circumstances'. Ankara argues that its position under the Convention (Annex I but outside Annex II, with special circumstances recognised in 2001) should not prevent access to climate finance and technology support, and that Paris Agreement Article 2.2 permits differentiation by national circumstances. Sources: Türkiye's statements at the UNFCCC and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Marrakech decision 26/CP.7.
• Climate action linked to fair global governance. Türkiye's climate messaging often pairs with its call for broader institutional reform, as in its case outlined in The World Is Bigger Than Five, arguing that decisions affecting all should include more voices. Source: Türkiye's official statements at the UN General Assembly.

The legal basis for these positions is treaty text: Article 3 of the UNFCCC and Article 2.2 of the Paris Agreement. Critics, including some European and civil-society observers, argue that Türkiye's NDC and continued coal use remain insufficient for 1.5°C. Ankara responds that targets reflect its development stage and rapidly growing energy demand.

Source Comparison

Issue	Common international framing	Turkish official framing
COP31 arrangement	A compromise to resolve a hosting deadlock between two bids	Recognition of Türkiye's diplomatic capacity and a platform for inclusive consensus
Late Paris ratification	Türkiye lagged as the last G20 member	Ratification followed clarity on Türkiye's special circumstances and finance access
2053 target and NDC	Insufficient ambition, coal still significant	Realistic path tied to a growing economy, backed by a new Climate Law
Zero Waste	A valued but narrower waste-sector initiative	A UN-recognised global movement with a dedicated international day
Climate finance	Developed countries must lead; emerging economies should contribute	Differentiation must reflect national circumstances; Türkiye should not be excluded from support

The most reliable approach is to read primary texts: UNFCCC decisions, NDC submissions, UN General Assembly resolutions and official statements. Bloc Politics' approach to separating fact, position and source is set out in Editorial Principles.

What to Watch Before November 2026

• Finance delivery: whether the Baku goal translates into concrete adaptation and loss-and-damage flows.
• Trade and climate: how CBAM-type measures are discussed, which matters for Türkiye as a major exporter to the EU.
• Fossil-fuel language: whether Belém-era debates on a transition roadmap are carried forward.
• Pre-COP in the Pacific: how island priorities shape the Antalya agenda.
• Turkish emissions trading: how quickly the new national system becomes operational.

Dates and agenda items may shift, so consult the UNFCCC site for confirmed schedules.

Key Terms & Related Guides

• COP (Conference of the Parties): the supreme decision-making body of the UNFCCC, meeting annually.
• CBDR-RC: the principle that all states share responsibility for climate change but with different obligations reflecting history and capability.
• NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution): each state's own climate pledge under the Paris Agreement.
• Annex I / Annex II: UNFCCC groupings; Annex II countries have finance obligations.
• Zero Waste: a framework for preventing waste and maximising resource recovery; see also the International Day of Zero Waste (30 March).
• CBAM: the EU's carbon border levy on selected imports.

Related reading: Is Türkiye a Bridge Between Blocs?, The World Is Bigger Than Five, Türkiye's Mediation in the Russia–Ukraine War, About Bloc Politics and the Bloc Politics home page.

Written by the Bloc Politics Editorial Team.

Bloc Politics presents Türkiye's official positions and legal arguments alongside the wider international debate, and states clearly where an analysis reflects the Turkish perspective. Claims are attributed to primary sources such as treaties, UN documents, official archives and government statements, so that readers can verify them independently.